ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE YUGOSLAVIA CONFLICT

5. Anticipated Future Risks or Threats

5.1. Environmental

5.1.1. Yugoslavia

Internal Threats:
Future negative consequences of the military activities on the environment and nature of Yugoslavia are difficult to perceive at the moment. Even more difficult is to make any prediction regarding the intensity of future ecological damage. Nevertheless, some elementary prognosis and estimations can be made even now:
  • Present negative effects on reproduction of flora and fauna, caused by physical damage to habitats and populations as well as chemical and other types of contamination, can result in the decrease of populations of the rarest and most endangered species in Yugoslavia, as well as in migratory species in the broader region.
  • Accumulation of toxic and cancerous material in the soil and plants, in the future might result in decrease in number of populations of the most endangered species provoked by the disturbance of their reproductive cycles.
  • Accumulation of toxic and cancerous material in the soil and plants may cause food contamination and therefore have consequences for human health.
  • Because of the destruction of the electric-power system and oil industry of Yugoslavia, and destruction of the most significant heating plants in the biggest towns, one of the consequences will be insufficient heating in the coming winter season. Therefore, especially in rural areas, it is realistic to expect an enormous increase in tree felling, both controlled and uncontrolled. Apart from devastation of the forest ecosystems, the felling will provoke an increased risk of extinction of many rare and endangered forest species.
  • Also, in the places of intensive tree felling, there will certainly occur an increased erosion of the soil.

Chronic effects on human health:

  • Pollution: Several of the above-described toxic compounds released after bombing can cause chronic health problems. Perhaps the most dangerous is depleted uranium, but there are also other carcinogenic and toxic substances, such as vinyl chloride monomers, which have been released. Many of the compounds released can cause miscarriages and birth defects. Others are associated with fatal nerve and liver diseases. The effects of the bombing of Yugoslavia’s industrial facilities are a serious threat both locally and regionally to human health in the long-term.
  • Water supply: The whole population of Yugoslavia faces shortages in elementary supplies: power, water and food. Use of graphite bombs caused short circuits on high-voltage power lines and the collapse of the electric power system of Yugoslavia. About one million households and other local facilities are short of water supply due to the adverse effects on the water supply system. Water pipelines have been destroyed in Novi Sad, Belgrade, Sjenica and other cities.
  • Food: Shortages should be expected because the conflict took place in the phase of planting of many crops, including corn, sunflower, soy, sugar beet and other vegetables. The lack of protective substances, as well as fertilisers, could totally endanger the survival of certain crops. The lack of fuel for agricultural machines will curtail work.
  • Infrastructure: The Yugoslav population is also threatened by destruction of infrastructure (central heating stations, the road and railway networks) which could lead to humanitarian problems during the coming winter.

5.1.2. Albania

The following are considered as the main future threats or risks:
  • Autumn and winter are rainy seasons in Albania. Some of the camps, constructed on flatlands near hills, are threatened by flooding (Elbasan: Shushica camp), even when the precipitation amount is within its normal levels.
  • The free run-off of sewage water is a permanent threat, not only for the refugee communities in camps or collective centres but also for the Albanian residents near them.
  • The reduced amount of drinking water during summertime, and bad quality of chlorinating (Shengjin) might be a source of infectious diseases. Supplying water to camps and collective centres will decrease the water supply for urban areas and, due to poor links in pipelines, the quality of the water is expected to decrease too.
  • Protected areas are under threat from construction of tented camps or other sheltering buildings. Fire might cause considerable damages during the hot and dry summer.
  • The potential threat of pollution to the underground water table has not been adequately considered. In Korca, the most important city in south-east Albania, three large camps, with a maximum capacity of 20,000 places, have built above the area from which the whole region obtains its drinking water.

5.1.3. Bulgaria

As was mentioned above, data from environmental monitoring did not present concrete figures for pollution. It is quite obvious that risks to the environment can be expected, but they cannot yet be assessed. Monitoring should continue.

5.1.4. FYR Macedonia

  • It is anticipated that long-term pollution of the drinking water may appear at the Rasce spring. Water pollution from all camps poses a serious risk.
  • There is still a risk of radioactive and chemical pollution of the air. This could result in pollution to the soil, and consequently, food products. The situation requires further monitoring to ascertain the possible risks.
  • Due to temperatures of up to 40 degrees centigrade and more during the months of June, July and August, epidemic diseases may appear, though there is very good medical coverage in the camps. Larger than normal instances of mental illness can also be anticipated as a result of social, economic and political conditions, both among Macedonians and in the refugee camps.

5.1.5. Romania

As in Bulgaria, the data of the environmental monitoring did not present concrete figures for pollution, but it is quite obvious that risks to the environment might be expected. Because these cannot yet be assessed, monitoring should continue.

5.2. Institutional

5.2.1. Yugoslavia

Governmental and professional:
Due to damage caused by the war and a lack of resources, it can be anticipated that the governmental structure will be unable to deal with the nation’s environmental problems. This incapacity will be exacerbated by Yugoslavia’s years of isolation.

Future reconstruction should take place with the support and full participation of relevant Yugoslav governmental institutions and bodies. Otherwise the proper process of restoration and reconstruction of Yugoslavia, including its environment, will not be possible. If existing government structures are completely by-passed or left out of efforts to restore the country, reconstruction could take place without the proper information and institutional memory required for good planning. The result could be that reconstruction might actually compound environmental threats.

NGOs:
The whole Yugoslav NGO community was seriously affected by the war. This is especially evident within environmental NGOs. The dynamic process of forming new organisations, which had been increasing in recent years, has come to a halt. In most cases, the programmes of existing NGOs have been cancelled as well. On one hand the constant bombing prevented field activities. On the other, shortages in available subsidies, problems in power supply and reduction in communications kept NGOs capacity to a minimum. Existing or planned networks did not have the opportunity to organise any kind of meeting or workshop.

Without outside help, it is hard to believe that the majority of Yugoslavia’s environmental NGOs, especially grass-root organisations, will survive the following period. The repercussions on the wider process of democratisation of the whole society will be much slower without well developed NGOs or citizens groups.

5.2.2. Albania

Notwithstanding the good efforts and extreme preoccupation of the Albanian government, there was poor co-operation between the emergency structures of central and local government and the responsible environmental institutions. The National Agency for Environment was not a party to the decisions on camp building or other interventions into the environment. Also, the international organisations and military in charge of specific camps provided little data and showed little willingness to co-operate with the local structures for environment. In most districts, environmental specialists are not local emergency committee members. If this state of affairs persists, then the environmental dimension will be totally lost in the reconstruction efforts of Albania.

The work of NGOs has supported many protected areas and environmental campaigns. There is a danger that funds will move to the humanitarian NGO sector, leaving a dearth of funds for environmental work.

5.2.3. Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, the monitoring systems were able to cope with the new challenges of the conflict. It is important, however, that the government act on any threats that appear on the longer-term once the initial crisis has passed.

For environmental NGOs, the threat might be that the conflict has complicated the environmental issue in the country by focusing attention away from other areas. Additionally, the chances of transboundary co-operation with neighbouring countries may be curtailed.

5.2.4. FYR Macedonian

In general, no institutions in FYR Macedonia were able to anticipate precisely future risks either in quantity, quality or financial causes. This reinforces the position that the infrastructure of the authorities to deal with possible problems is weak.

Additionally, environmental NGOs do not appear to have reacted completely to the environmental challenges posed by the conflict. Most probably this is because the humanitarian issues were the main priority.

5.2.5. Romania

The general conclusion is that the conflict has offered no extra threat to an already weak institutional framework. The Romanian monitoring system appeared to be so seriously under-developed and under-funded, and despite the best work of the staff the results are questionable.

NGOs have also failed to take any great stand on the possible environmental consequences of the conflict. The transboundary work with colleagues in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria will require encouragement to bring the level of cooperation up.

REC  *  YUGOSLAVIA REPORT  *  NEXT SECTION

HOME PAGESEARCH